Four Data Points to Take Into 2026

CMSPI’s Client Connect 2025 brought together leading merchants, payments experts, and policy stakeholders at The Whitley Hotel in Atlanta for two days of collaborative discussion and strategic insight. With a focus on payments optimization, the event highlighted the rising complexity of the payments industry and the critical role of data, innovation, and policy in driving merchant outcomes.

Amidst all the insights from speakers, panelists, and attendees, four statistics stood out that are shaping merchants’ payments strategies into 2026.

1. $236 Billion in Estimated Card Fees: Why Fragmented Data is Costing Merchants Record-Highs

Sitting in a room with the world’s most sophisticated merchants, one theme was unmistakable: data isn’t just a tool—it’s the foundation. From macroeconomic trends to transaction-level analytics, the message was clear. CMSPI’s Callum Godwin and James Schaefer unpacked how high-rewards card usage, rising network fees, and increased card-not-present (CNP) spend are driving higher card fees—now totaling $236 billion in the U.S. (Figure 1). But the real challenge lies in fragmented data. As speakers showcased in “Mind the Data Gap,” merchants need unified models to unlock insights across the transaction lifecycle—from authorizations to approvals to chargebacks. Without it, optimization is guesswork.

2. $3 Billion in Estimated CNP PINless Savings²: Why Merchant Collaboration is Essential

One of the most powerful themes to emerge from Client Connect 2025 was the transformative impact of collaboration across the payments industry. Sitting alongside some of the world’s most sophisticated merchants, it became clear that no single stakeholder—be it issuer, acquirer, or merchant—can optimize in isolation.

In the “Turning Up the Heat on PINless” and “Routing Realities” sessions, we saw how strategic debit routing and PINless enablement (Figure 2) can unlock over $3 billion in estimated annual savings. But the real driver of savings isn’t just technical—it’s relational. Case studies showed that when merchants work closely with networks and processors, they improve not just cost efficiency but also network availability and transaction performance. Collaboration isn’t a nice-to-have; it’s a competitive advantage.

This was echoed in “Breaking Down Silos: Approval Strategies,” where we tackled the challenge of authorization rate optimization. The takeaway? Transparency and shared data between issuers, merchants, and acquirers are essential. Everyone wants to approve legitimate transactions—but without a shared strategy, friction persists.

3. $200 Billion in Estimated Ecommerce Fraud: Innovation Without Strategy is Risky

From agentic commerce to stablecoins and open banking, the future of payments is being shaped by rapid innovation. But sitting in sessions like “The Future of Payments” and our breakout on agent-led commerce, one thing became clear: innovation must be approached with precision, not hype.

Merchants are eager to explore new tools—but they’re also wary. Despite advancements in fraud prevention, ecommerce losses are estimated to exceed $200 billion globally in 2024 (Figure 3), with over 3% of ecommerce revenue lost to fraud.⁴ That’s a sobering reminder that despite significant improvements in innovation, there’s still a long road ahead to ‘optimal’.

The promise of agentic shoppers or stablecoin-based payments is real, but so are the risks around governance, liability, and consumer protection.

4. Up to $12 Billion in Estimated Debit Savings⁶: How Policy Can Reshape Payments

Policy certainly doesn’t move as fast as solutions in stablecoin or agentic commerce, but it does set the rules of the game and the foundations of innovation.

At Client Connect 2025, the “Making Sense of Policy Change” panel made clear that regulatory shifts can unlock billions in merchant savings, but only if merchants are engaged and understand their data.

We explored the implications of Regulation II, the Credit Card Competition Act, and state-level advocacy. CMSPI’s data showed that merchants could save nearly $4 billion annually if the regulated debit interchange cap were lowered to the proposed rate—and over $12 billion if it were aligned with the transaction-weighted average authorization, clearing, and settlement (ACS) cost (Figure 4).

But policy doesn’t operate in a vacuum. In “Policy in Payment Modernization,” we discussed how regulation must evolve alongside technology. Whether it’s stablecoins, agentic commerce, or open banking, the challenge is ensuring that innovation is shaped by principles of safety, fairness, and consumer protection.

For merchants, the takeaway is simple: policy is not just a backdrop—it’s a lever to deliver optimal outcomes.

See you next year

Client Connect 2025 made one thing clear: payments optimization is a journey that requires precision, partnership, and data.

If you work with CMSPI, we’re excited to see you next year for our third annual Client Connect. In the meantime, please feel free to stay in touch through our Townhall community here.