September 21st 2020
Adapt to Survive: COVID-19’s Impact on Retail
Since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic on March 11, 2020, we’ve observed several fundamental changes to retail spending – including huge revenue fluctuations, shifting Average Transaction Values (ATVs), and changes to preferred spending channels and payment methods.
Starting from week commencing (w/c) March 30th 2020, CMSPI published a regular Retail Payments Review tracking all these spending trends during the pandemic, using data from our Merchant Payments Index (MPI). We considered what recovery might look like in both an optimistic bull and a pessimistic bear scenario. Our estimates suggest a bull scenario would see $100 billion of lost revenue and a bear scenario would hit impact sales by nearly $500 billion by the end of 2020. We continue to monitor and analyze the key trends in the retail industry as recovery continues.