Our first report – released in September – used testing data for the month of August to estimate €108bn of sales at risk. These sales were at risk of transactions failing, technical errors occurring, and ultimately good customers being forced to cancel their purchases.
September testing data showed an improvement, with the sales at risk estimate falling to €92bn but worsened slightly with October testing data suggesting a sales at risk estimate of €96bn across Europe. November data showed a modest improvement with the sales at risk estimate falling to €89bn and our most recent estimate based on December testing data has shown slight improvement with estimated sales at risk of €85bn. This gives serious cause for concern as this represents the state of readiness just as enforcement of SCA begins for a number of European countries.
The evolution in the sales at risk value differs by country, with some countries showing a worsening of failure rates and an increase in the sales at risk value. Our updated report breaks the sales at risk figure down by country, providing information on the impact on both small and large retailers as well as the evolution of metrics such as 3DS issuer readiness and failure rates.
Key findings in this update include:
- Estimated total sales at risk has fallen from €89 billion to €85 billion
- The failure rate for Italy is estimated at 38%, significantly higher than the European weighted average of 28%
- Italy is estimated to have the largest failure rate of all the countries considered at 38% followed by Spain at 36% and Germany at 33%
- Germany and Italy are estimated to have seen a worsening of failure rates since the last report