SCA Report – Latest November Updates

17th December 2020
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Alex Ellwood

CMSPI’s insights team has been analysing retailer Strong Customer Authentication testing data to show the potential sales at risk and overall readiness of the industry. Our first report – released in September – used testing data for the month of August to estimate €108 bn of sales at risk. These sales were at risk of transactions failing, technical errors occurring, and ultimately good customers being forced to cancel their purchases.

September testing data showed an improvement, with the sales at risk estimate falling to €92bn but worsened slightly with October testing data suggesting a sales at risk estimate of €96bn across Europe. November data has shown improvement with the sales at risk estimate falling to €89bn. However, with less than a month to go, the latest estimate leaves cause for concern.

The evolution in the sales at risk value differs by country, with some countries showing an worsening of failure rates and an increase in the sales at risk value. Our updated report breaks the sales at risk figure down by country, providing information on the impact on both small and large retailers as well as the evolution of metrics such as 3DS issuer readiness and failure rates.

Key findings in this update include:

  • Estimated total sales at risk has fallen from €96 billion to €89 billion
  • Estimated total sales at risk for Spain has improved since the last report
  • The failure rate for Spain is estimated at 39%, significantly higher than the European weighted average of 28%
  • Italy is estimated to have the second largest failure rate of all the countries considered at 37% an increase from 35% in the last report
  • Italy, Finland, Iceland and the Netherlands are estimated to have seen a worsening of failure rates since the last report

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